Ricardo Carerras Lario

If we raise the question whether Raul Castro is a Cuban Gorbaczev, unfortunately, the answer will be:  he is not.  What is more, in a recording from 14 years ago, he was called the Gorbaczev traitor and his actions were compared to the actions of a crazy surgeon who opens up a patient and instead of treating him, causes him to die.  Like Fidel, he undoubtedly sensed the unwillingness toward everything that was associated with Gobaczev.  Raul Castro is convinced that he should stay faithful to the historic legacy of his brother.  Furthermore, he surrounds himself with like-minded people:  the so-called Talib – the youngest generation of followers, old veterans, dinosaurs, such as Ramiro Valdes and others who do not want changes.  Omar rightfully observed that there are also reformers in Cuba.  However, these reformers are in hiding – a reformers’ crypt.  Every time when they just come out of hiding, they use a plan called putting on pajamas, as in Roberto Robain’s case, that is home arrest. 

The one fulfilling the plan puts on his pajamas and stays at home, not being able to let him go.  Roberto Robain spoke out in public; he said that reforms must take place and his Ministry of Foreign Affairs career soon thereafter ended.  Everyone in Cuba knows that Fidel Castro is alive and up until now, when Raul Castro will exercise power about reforms, there is no way this will happen.  Concerning the opinion about the subject of reform, I agree wholeheartedly with the ambassadors.  Just as the Soviets, Fidel Castro perfectly knows as well that one day some kind of reform will begin; there is no way to slow it down - to limit it.  Fidel Castro never spoke about reforms. 

He never called in a congress, in contrast, he blocked everyone.  Such a congress should have such a position exactly now.  The VI Congress of the Communist Party never happened.  It was planned to be called in 2002, but nothing came of it.  In all the congresses which took place, Fidel Castro blocked any kind of reform.  He never let any discussions about reforms happen, because he knew that it would be difficult to implement boundaries.  Fidel introduced a few reforms when he had no way out, but never discussed them with anyone.  Suddenly, he announced – From now on, the obligatory currency is the dollar. – But until now, we imprisoned people who had dollars in their possession – someone observed.  – It is not important – from now on we use the dollar – said Fidel Castro.  Then he said: - No, now we do not acknowledge the dollar, now we will use the peso convertible.

He introduced reforms when he had no way out.  When he did not have to, he always retreated.  Fidel Castro never opened debates on the subject of reform. 

Raul Castro is a reformist in terms of the economy, but not politics.  He follows the example of the Chinese model, even the infamous Vietnamese model from the eighties which is much more centralized, where the Communist party has control over everything, but the economy slowly opens up.

Therefore, how will the future of Cuba look like?  Fidel Castro knows well that it will be difficult to hold everything together all at once and sooner or later those who have overall control, will start losing it.  Moreover, Cuba is neither China nor Vietnam.  Furthermore, Raul Castro is 75 years old and not in the best of health.  Except for him, there is no one who will be able to maintain something that is not to be maintained.  This system is exactly this kind; not to be maintained.  It is contrary to human nature; it does not satisfy any human need.  It does not give any political nor economic liberties.

Translation: Dana Szypcio